Tuesday 15 March 2016

Why China Won't Invade Nepal





The bilateral relations between Nepal and the People's Republic of China have been friendly and defined by Nepal's policy of balancing the competing influence of China and Nepal's southern neighbour India, the only two neighbors of the Himalayan country.

One of the main reasons why China is not considering claiming any parts of Nepal is because there is a strategical tug-of-war on play between India and China for influence in Nepal. China has been significantly successful in reducing Indian influence in recent years. China's effort in doing so is even made easier by the vehement dislike by Nepalese people of the Indian interfence in Nepal's internal matters.

China saw this anti-India sentiment as an opportunity, and has exploited it with astonishing success. Now, however, if they start claiming parts of Nepal's territory, all this soft power will simply vanish, and Nepal will turn to India in order to counter the Chinese threat -- exactly as it had turned to China to counter what it saw as intrusive actions of India in Nepal.

In fact, this to-and-fro between China and India has been going on in Nepalese politics even when India was still British India. It resumed with new enthusiasm after the Chinese annexation of Tibet. India, however, was rather obtuse and instead of gradually increasing real influence in Nepal, repeatedly acted in ways that could be construed as interfering in Nepal's sovereign matters.
If China were to consider claiming Nepalese region(s) the foremost on the list would be Mustang region of Nepal. After all, the people of Mustang speak Tibetan, and consider themselves to be Tibetan in all socio-cultural dimensions.

But doing so now would be premature, and will definitely undo the inroads they have made into Nepal over the last three decades. Unlike India, I find it highly unlikely that China will act bluntly until its influence in Nepal is indisputably strong.

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